Expected profit of my simple board game











up vote
3
down vote

favorite














How to play:



Use 1 host and at least 1 player



Each player has to toss fair six-sided dice to go to goal.



If the player is at the 35th cell and tosses 2 or more, he can go to goal aa same as he tosses 1.



If the player reaches the goal in 9 tossing or less, the host has to pay to that player 1$ per 1 tossing less than 10.



For example, if the player reaches the goal in 7 tossing, host have to pay 3$ to that player.



If the player reaches the goal in 11 tossing or more, that player has to pay to host 1$ per 1 tossing more than 10.



For example, if the player reaches the goal in 12 tossing, that player has to pay 2$ to host.



If the player reaches the goal in 10 tossing, no one has to pay.



Each game will end only if the player reaches the goal.



Player can't pay 1$ and start new game if he can't reaches the goal in 11th tossing.



What is expected profit of host per player for each game?



As much as I know for this game, The expected value in rolling a six-sided die is 3.5.
The expected value of distance in 10 tossing is 35-cell but the goal is at 36-cell distance so expected profit of host is positive. If the goal is at 35th-cell, expected profit of host is 0. But I have no idea to calculate.










share|cite|improve this question




























    up vote
    3
    down vote

    favorite














    How to play:



    Use 1 host and at least 1 player



    Each player has to toss fair six-sided dice to go to goal.



    If the player is at the 35th cell and tosses 2 or more, he can go to goal aa same as he tosses 1.



    If the player reaches the goal in 9 tossing or less, the host has to pay to that player 1$ per 1 tossing less than 10.



    For example, if the player reaches the goal in 7 tossing, host have to pay 3$ to that player.



    If the player reaches the goal in 11 tossing or more, that player has to pay to host 1$ per 1 tossing more than 10.



    For example, if the player reaches the goal in 12 tossing, that player has to pay 2$ to host.



    If the player reaches the goal in 10 tossing, no one has to pay.



    Each game will end only if the player reaches the goal.



    Player can't pay 1$ and start new game if he can't reaches the goal in 11th tossing.



    What is expected profit of host per player for each game?



    As much as I know for this game, The expected value in rolling a six-sided die is 3.5.
    The expected value of distance in 10 tossing is 35-cell but the goal is at 36-cell distance so expected profit of host is positive. If the goal is at 35th-cell, expected profit of host is 0. But I have no idea to calculate.










    share|cite|improve this question


























      up vote
      3
      down vote

      favorite









      up vote
      3
      down vote

      favorite













      How to play:



      Use 1 host and at least 1 player



      Each player has to toss fair six-sided dice to go to goal.



      If the player is at the 35th cell and tosses 2 or more, he can go to goal aa same as he tosses 1.



      If the player reaches the goal in 9 tossing or less, the host has to pay to that player 1$ per 1 tossing less than 10.



      For example, if the player reaches the goal in 7 tossing, host have to pay 3$ to that player.



      If the player reaches the goal in 11 tossing or more, that player has to pay to host 1$ per 1 tossing more than 10.



      For example, if the player reaches the goal in 12 tossing, that player has to pay 2$ to host.



      If the player reaches the goal in 10 tossing, no one has to pay.



      Each game will end only if the player reaches the goal.



      Player can't pay 1$ and start new game if he can't reaches the goal in 11th tossing.



      What is expected profit of host per player for each game?



      As much as I know for this game, The expected value in rolling a six-sided die is 3.5.
      The expected value of distance in 10 tossing is 35-cell but the goal is at 36-cell distance so expected profit of host is positive. If the goal is at 35th-cell, expected profit of host is 0. But I have no idea to calculate.










      share|cite|improve this question

















      How to play:



      Use 1 host and at least 1 player



      Each player has to toss fair six-sided dice to go to goal.



      If the player is at the 35th cell and tosses 2 or more, he can go to goal aa same as he tosses 1.



      If the player reaches the goal in 9 tossing or less, the host has to pay to that player 1$ per 1 tossing less than 10.



      For example, if the player reaches the goal in 7 tossing, host have to pay 3$ to that player.



      If the player reaches the goal in 11 tossing or more, that player has to pay to host 1$ per 1 tossing more than 10.



      For example, if the player reaches the goal in 12 tossing, that player has to pay 2$ to host.



      If the player reaches the goal in 10 tossing, no one has to pay.



      Each game will end only if the player reaches the goal.



      Player can't pay 1$ and start new game if he can't reaches the goal in 11th tossing.



      What is expected profit of host per player for each game?



      As much as I know for this game, The expected value in rolling a six-sided die is 3.5.
      The expected value of distance in 10 tossing is 35-cell but the goal is at 36-cell distance so expected profit of host is positive. If the goal is at 35th-cell, expected profit of host is 0. But I have no idea to calculate.







      combinatorics contest-math puzzle combinatorial-game-theory






      share|cite|improve this question















      share|cite|improve this question













      share|cite|improve this question




      share|cite|improve this question








      edited Nov 22 at 10:27









      Tralala

      739124




      739124










      asked Nov 22 at 6:17









      uesdto signin

      184




      184






















          1 Answer
          1






          active

          oldest

          votes

















          up vote
          2
          down vote



          accepted










          Here is the exact computation, taking all possible games into account. Idea: Consider the polynomial
          $$p_j(x):=(x+x^2+x^3+x^4+x^5+x^6)^j .$$ The coefficient $[x^k]p_j(x)$ gives the number of $j$-tosses histories that bring the player exactly to square $k$. Since I'm not interested in squares $kgeq36$ I truncate $p_j(x)$ after the $x^{35}$ term. In this way I obtain the "truncated series" ${tt s[j]}$. The sum $sum_{k=0}^{35} [x^k]p_j(x)$ counts the number of games that are not over after $j$ tosses. Dividing this sum by $6^j$ gives the probability $p(j)$ that the game is not yet over after $j$ tosses, and $q(j):=p(j-1)-p(j)$ is the probability that the game ends with the $j^{rm th}$ toss. The expected gain for the host then is $sum_{j=1}^{36} (j-10)q(j)$.



          enter image description here



          If the goal is at square $35$ instead of $36$ the corresponding value is $0.476195$, and for $34$ it is $0.190481$ in favor of the host. In any case I suggest you write your own program and tune the parameters as desired.






          share|cite|improve this answer























          • I don't understand the program much. But is the expected profit per player for each game really 0.761905? I think it should be around 0-0.2. If it is really 0.761905, if the goal is at 35th-cell or even 34th-cell, the expected profit will still be positive.
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 9:41










          • $0.761905$ is the expected profit of host per game, as demanded in the question.
            – Christian Blatter
            Nov 22 at 10:08










          • Could you calculate the expected profit for case the goal is at 35th-cell and 34th-cell, please ?
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 10:47










          • Thank you very much. It is weird that the expected value in rolling a six-sided die is 3.5. But if the goal is at square 34, the expected profit for host is still positive. I think it should be negative. If I write program as same as you write in mathematica, will I get answer as same as you get (Is there anything else)?
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 11:48












          • I hope so. I simulated $1,000,000$ games with goal $=36$ and obtained $0.762758$.
            – Christian Blatter
            Nov 22 at 12:22











          Your Answer





          StackExchange.ifUsing("editor", function () {
          return StackExchange.using("mathjaxEditing", function () {
          StackExchange.MarkdownEditor.creationCallbacks.add(function (editor, postfix) {
          StackExchange.mathjaxEditing.prepareWmdForMathJax(editor, postfix, [["$", "$"], ["\\(","\\)"]]);
          });
          });
          }, "mathjax-editing");

          StackExchange.ready(function() {
          var channelOptions = {
          tags: "".split(" "),
          id: "69"
          };
          initTagRenderer("".split(" "), "".split(" "), channelOptions);

          StackExchange.using("externalEditor", function() {
          // Have to fire editor after snippets, if snippets enabled
          if (StackExchange.settings.snippets.snippetsEnabled) {
          StackExchange.using("snippets", function() {
          createEditor();
          });
          }
          else {
          createEditor();
          }
          });

          function createEditor() {
          StackExchange.prepareEditor({
          heartbeatType: 'answer',
          convertImagesToLinks: true,
          noModals: true,
          showLowRepImageUploadWarning: true,
          reputationToPostImages: 10,
          bindNavPrevention: true,
          postfix: "",
          imageUploader: {
          brandingHtml: "Powered by u003ca class="icon-imgur-white" href="https://imgur.com/"u003eu003c/au003e",
          contentPolicyHtml: "User contributions licensed under u003ca href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/"u003ecc by-sa 3.0 with attribution requiredu003c/au003e u003ca href="https://stackoverflow.com/legal/content-policy"u003e(content policy)u003c/au003e",
          allowUrls: true
          },
          noCode: true, onDemand: true,
          discardSelector: ".discard-answer"
          ,immediatelyShowMarkdownHelp:true
          });


          }
          });














          draft saved

          draft discarded


















          StackExchange.ready(
          function () {
          StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2fmath.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f3008802%2fexpected-profit-of-my-simple-board-game%23new-answer', 'question_page');
          }
          );

          Post as a guest















          Required, but never shown

























          1 Answer
          1






          active

          oldest

          votes








          1 Answer
          1






          active

          oldest

          votes









          active

          oldest

          votes






          active

          oldest

          votes








          up vote
          2
          down vote



          accepted










          Here is the exact computation, taking all possible games into account. Idea: Consider the polynomial
          $$p_j(x):=(x+x^2+x^3+x^4+x^5+x^6)^j .$$ The coefficient $[x^k]p_j(x)$ gives the number of $j$-tosses histories that bring the player exactly to square $k$. Since I'm not interested in squares $kgeq36$ I truncate $p_j(x)$ after the $x^{35}$ term. In this way I obtain the "truncated series" ${tt s[j]}$. The sum $sum_{k=0}^{35} [x^k]p_j(x)$ counts the number of games that are not over after $j$ tosses. Dividing this sum by $6^j$ gives the probability $p(j)$ that the game is not yet over after $j$ tosses, and $q(j):=p(j-1)-p(j)$ is the probability that the game ends with the $j^{rm th}$ toss. The expected gain for the host then is $sum_{j=1}^{36} (j-10)q(j)$.



          enter image description here



          If the goal is at square $35$ instead of $36$ the corresponding value is $0.476195$, and for $34$ it is $0.190481$ in favor of the host. In any case I suggest you write your own program and tune the parameters as desired.






          share|cite|improve this answer























          • I don't understand the program much. But is the expected profit per player for each game really 0.761905? I think it should be around 0-0.2. If it is really 0.761905, if the goal is at 35th-cell or even 34th-cell, the expected profit will still be positive.
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 9:41










          • $0.761905$ is the expected profit of host per game, as demanded in the question.
            – Christian Blatter
            Nov 22 at 10:08










          • Could you calculate the expected profit for case the goal is at 35th-cell and 34th-cell, please ?
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 10:47










          • Thank you very much. It is weird that the expected value in rolling a six-sided die is 3.5. But if the goal is at square 34, the expected profit for host is still positive. I think it should be negative. If I write program as same as you write in mathematica, will I get answer as same as you get (Is there anything else)?
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 11:48












          • I hope so. I simulated $1,000,000$ games with goal $=36$ and obtained $0.762758$.
            – Christian Blatter
            Nov 22 at 12:22















          up vote
          2
          down vote



          accepted










          Here is the exact computation, taking all possible games into account. Idea: Consider the polynomial
          $$p_j(x):=(x+x^2+x^3+x^4+x^5+x^6)^j .$$ The coefficient $[x^k]p_j(x)$ gives the number of $j$-tosses histories that bring the player exactly to square $k$. Since I'm not interested in squares $kgeq36$ I truncate $p_j(x)$ after the $x^{35}$ term. In this way I obtain the "truncated series" ${tt s[j]}$. The sum $sum_{k=0}^{35} [x^k]p_j(x)$ counts the number of games that are not over after $j$ tosses. Dividing this sum by $6^j$ gives the probability $p(j)$ that the game is not yet over after $j$ tosses, and $q(j):=p(j-1)-p(j)$ is the probability that the game ends with the $j^{rm th}$ toss. The expected gain for the host then is $sum_{j=1}^{36} (j-10)q(j)$.



          enter image description here



          If the goal is at square $35$ instead of $36$ the corresponding value is $0.476195$, and for $34$ it is $0.190481$ in favor of the host. In any case I suggest you write your own program and tune the parameters as desired.






          share|cite|improve this answer























          • I don't understand the program much. But is the expected profit per player for each game really 0.761905? I think it should be around 0-0.2. If it is really 0.761905, if the goal is at 35th-cell or even 34th-cell, the expected profit will still be positive.
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 9:41










          • $0.761905$ is the expected profit of host per game, as demanded in the question.
            – Christian Blatter
            Nov 22 at 10:08










          • Could you calculate the expected profit for case the goal is at 35th-cell and 34th-cell, please ?
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 10:47










          • Thank you very much. It is weird that the expected value in rolling a six-sided die is 3.5. But if the goal is at square 34, the expected profit for host is still positive. I think it should be negative. If I write program as same as you write in mathematica, will I get answer as same as you get (Is there anything else)?
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 11:48












          • I hope so. I simulated $1,000,000$ games with goal $=36$ and obtained $0.762758$.
            – Christian Blatter
            Nov 22 at 12:22













          up vote
          2
          down vote



          accepted







          up vote
          2
          down vote



          accepted






          Here is the exact computation, taking all possible games into account. Idea: Consider the polynomial
          $$p_j(x):=(x+x^2+x^3+x^4+x^5+x^6)^j .$$ The coefficient $[x^k]p_j(x)$ gives the number of $j$-tosses histories that bring the player exactly to square $k$. Since I'm not interested in squares $kgeq36$ I truncate $p_j(x)$ after the $x^{35}$ term. In this way I obtain the "truncated series" ${tt s[j]}$. The sum $sum_{k=0}^{35} [x^k]p_j(x)$ counts the number of games that are not over after $j$ tosses. Dividing this sum by $6^j$ gives the probability $p(j)$ that the game is not yet over after $j$ tosses, and $q(j):=p(j-1)-p(j)$ is the probability that the game ends with the $j^{rm th}$ toss. The expected gain for the host then is $sum_{j=1}^{36} (j-10)q(j)$.



          enter image description here



          If the goal is at square $35$ instead of $36$ the corresponding value is $0.476195$, and for $34$ it is $0.190481$ in favor of the host. In any case I suggest you write your own program and tune the parameters as desired.






          share|cite|improve this answer














          Here is the exact computation, taking all possible games into account. Idea: Consider the polynomial
          $$p_j(x):=(x+x^2+x^3+x^4+x^5+x^6)^j .$$ The coefficient $[x^k]p_j(x)$ gives the number of $j$-tosses histories that bring the player exactly to square $k$. Since I'm not interested in squares $kgeq36$ I truncate $p_j(x)$ after the $x^{35}$ term. In this way I obtain the "truncated series" ${tt s[j]}$. The sum $sum_{k=0}^{35} [x^k]p_j(x)$ counts the number of games that are not over after $j$ tosses. Dividing this sum by $6^j$ gives the probability $p(j)$ that the game is not yet over after $j$ tosses, and $q(j):=p(j-1)-p(j)$ is the probability that the game ends with the $j^{rm th}$ toss. The expected gain for the host then is $sum_{j=1}^{36} (j-10)q(j)$.



          enter image description here



          If the goal is at square $35$ instead of $36$ the corresponding value is $0.476195$, and for $34$ it is $0.190481$ in favor of the host. In any case I suggest you write your own program and tune the parameters as desired.







          share|cite|improve this answer














          share|cite|improve this answer



          share|cite|improve this answer








          edited Nov 22 at 11:13

























          answered Nov 22 at 8:57









          Christian Blatter

          171k7111325




          171k7111325












          • I don't understand the program much. But is the expected profit per player for each game really 0.761905? I think it should be around 0-0.2. If it is really 0.761905, if the goal is at 35th-cell or even 34th-cell, the expected profit will still be positive.
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 9:41










          • $0.761905$ is the expected profit of host per game, as demanded in the question.
            – Christian Blatter
            Nov 22 at 10:08










          • Could you calculate the expected profit for case the goal is at 35th-cell and 34th-cell, please ?
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 10:47










          • Thank you very much. It is weird that the expected value in rolling a six-sided die is 3.5. But if the goal is at square 34, the expected profit for host is still positive. I think it should be negative. If I write program as same as you write in mathematica, will I get answer as same as you get (Is there anything else)?
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 11:48












          • I hope so. I simulated $1,000,000$ games with goal $=36$ and obtained $0.762758$.
            – Christian Blatter
            Nov 22 at 12:22


















          • I don't understand the program much. But is the expected profit per player for each game really 0.761905? I think it should be around 0-0.2. If it is really 0.761905, if the goal is at 35th-cell or even 34th-cell, the expected profit will still be positive.
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 9:41










          • $0.761905$ is the expected profit of host per game, as demanded in the question.
            – Christian Blatter
            Nov 22 at 10:08










          • Could you calculate the expected profit for case the goal is at 35th-cell and 34th-cell, please ?
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 10:47










          • Thank you very much. It is weird that the expected value in rolling a six-sided die is 3.5. But if the goal is at square 34, the expected profit for host is still positive. I think it should be negative. If I write program as same as you write in mathematica, will I get answer as same as you get (Is there anything else)?
            – uesdto signin
            Nov 22 at 11:48












          • I hope so. I simulated $1,000,000$ games with goal $=36$ and obtained $0.762758$.
            – Christian Blatter
            Nov 22 at 12:22
















          I don't understand the program much. But is the expected profit per player for each game really 0.761905? I think it should be around 0-0.2. If it is really 0.761905, if the goal is at 35th-cell or even 34th-cell, the expected profit will still be positive.
          – uesdto signin
          Nov 22 at 9:41




          I don't understand the program much. But is the expected profit per player for each game really 0.761905? I think it should be around 0-0.2. If it is really 0.761905, if the goal is at 35th-cell or even 34th-cell, the expected profit will still be positive.
          – uesdto signin
          Nov 22 at 9:41












          $0.761905$ is the expected profit of host per game, as demanded in the question.
          – Christian Blatter
          Nov 22 at 10:08




          $0.761905$ is the expected profit of host per game, as demanded in the question.
          – Christian Blatter
          Nov 22 at 10:08












          Could you calculate the expected profit for case the goal is at 35th-cell and 34th-cell, please ?
          – uesdto signin
          Nov 22 at 10:47




          Could you calculate the expected profit for case the goal is at 35th-cell and 34th-cell, please ?
          – uesdto signin
          Nov 22 at 10:47












          Thank you very much. It is weird that the expected value in rolling a six-sided die is 3.5. But if the goal is at square 34, the expected profit for host is still positive. I think it should be negative. If I write program as same as you write in mathematica, will I get answer as same as you get (Is there anything else)?
          – uesdto signin
          Nov 22 at 11:48






          Thank you very much. It is weird that the expected value in rolling a six-sided die is 3.5. But if the goal is at square 34, the expected profit for host is still positive. I think it should be negative. If I write program as same as you write in mathematica, will I get answer as same as you get (Is there anything else)?
          – uesdto signin
          Nov 22 at 11:48














          I hope so. I simulated $1,000,000$ games with goal $=36$ and obtained $0.762758$.
          – Christian Blatter
          Nov 22 at 12:22




          I hope so. I simulated $1,000,000$ games with goal $=36$ and obtained $0.762758$.
          – Christian Blatter
          Nov 22 at 12:22


















          draft saved

          draft discarded




















































          Thanks for contributing an answer to Mathematics Stack Exchange!


          • Please be sure to answer the question. Provide details and share your research!

          But avoid



          • Asking for help, clarification, or responding to other answers.

          • Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience.


          Use MathJax to format equations. MathJax reference.


          To learn more, see our tips on writing great answers.





          Some of your past answers have not been well-received, and you're in danger of being blocked from answering.


          Please pay close attention to the following guidance:


          • Please be sure to answer the question. Provide details and share your research!

          But avoid



          • Asking for help, clarification, or responding to other answers.

          • Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience.


          To learn more, see our tips on writing great answers.




          draft saved


          draft discarded














          StackExchange.ready(
          function () {
          StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2fmath.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f3008802%2fexpected-profit-of-my-simple-board-game%23new-answer', 'question_page');
          }
          );

          Post as a guest















          Required, but never shown





















































          Required, but never shown














          Required, but never shown












          Required, but never shown







          Required, but never shown

































          Required, but never shown














          Required, but never shown












          Required, but never shown







          Required, but never shown







          Popular posts from this blog

          Wiesbaden

          Marschland

          Dieringhausen