Is using a “Worst-case” scenario for the Likelihood aspect of a risk appropriate for OWASP Risk...
Our Code Reviewer mentioned that risk is both impact and likelihood, and the likelihood needs to be rated using the “worst-case” and this was documented in the OWASP documentation here:
https://www.owasp.org/index.php/OWASP_Risk_Rating_Methodology#Step_4:_Determining_the_Severity_of_the_Risk
Does anyone agree with that view?
owasp risk-analysis risk-management
asked Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
add a comment |
Our Code Reviewer mentioned that risk is both impact and likelihood, and the likelihood needs to be rated using the “worst-case” and this was documented in the OWASP documentation here:
https://www.owasp.org/index.php/OWASP_Risk_Rating_Methodology#Step_4:_Determining_the_Severity_of_the_Risk
Does anyone agree with that view?
owasp risk-analysis risk-management
asked Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
add a comment |
Our Code Reviewer mentioned that risk is both impact and likelihood, and the likelihood needs to be rated using the “worst-case” and this was documented in the OWASP documentation here:
https://www.owasp.org/index.php/OWASP_Risk_Rating_Methodology#Step_4:_Determining_the_Severity_of_the_Risk
Does anyone agree with that view?
owasp risk-analysis risk-management
asked Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
Our Code Reviewer mentioned that risk is both impact and likelihood, and the likelihood needs to be rated using the “worst-case” and this was documented in the OWASP documentation here:
https://www.owasp.org/index.php/OWASP_Risk_Rating_Methodology#Step_4:_Determining_the_Severity_of_the_Risk
Does anyone agree with that view?
owasp risk-analysis risk-management
owasp risk-analysis risk-management
asked Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
asked Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
asked Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
asked Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
asked Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
263
add a comment |
add a comment |
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
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In my opinion, and if you read carefully, the worst-case point is only relating to the multiple threat agents, so use the worst-case. To suggest that a likelihood overall should be worst-case means that it isn’t a likelihood but rather a worst-case. They are very different things.
If you read the first paragraph it mentions that likelihood is rough measure how likely this vulnerability is to be uncovered.
Secondly you intermix vulnerability and risk where the ultimate indicator is always risk.
I would appreciate support on this response so I can go back to the code reviewer and show him that he has misunderstood the OWASP likelihood.
answered Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
add a comment |
Step 1: Identifying a Risk suggests using worst-case scenarios.
Step 2: Factors for Estimating Likelihood also suggests using worst-case scenarios.
Step 3: Factors for Estimating Impact does not mention worst-case scenarios.
So it is appropriate to use worst-case scenarios for likelihood. However, what constitutes "worst-case" can be subjective and likely debatable.
An extreme example of "worst-case" would be your attacker is state-sponsored. They have already developed a collection automated tools for discovering and exploiting threats. They have a several spies working for your company so they know the vulnerabilities. They also know how to disable or work around your intrusion detection system.
Hopefully the person applying such risk rating will use a common sense version of "worst-case".
answered Nov 26 '18 at 4:18
kill_nullkill_null
1
How can you use "Worst-case" if you are looking for the probability? You have to determine how likely an attacker can expose the vulnerability. IF you always use worst case then it is not a likelihood - it is a worst case. You can look at the worst cases and best cases and all in between to determine the likelihood. The impact can be worst-case - as that is what an attacker could do if they expose the vulnerability. Thoughts?
– Rob Sumsion
Nov 26 '18 at 5:51
I understand what you are saying. Worst-case is an outlier when determining probability of an attack. So it is not the code reviewer who is wrong as he is correctly following the OWASP documentation, but rather the OWASP doc is flawed to suggest worst-case for likelihood.
– kill_null
Nov 28 '18 at 4:45
add a comment |
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2 Answers
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2 Answers
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In my opinion, and if you read carefully, the worst-case point is only relating to the multiple threat agents, so use the worst-case. To suggest that a likelihood overall should be worst-case means that it isn’t a likelihood but rather a worst-case. They are very different things.
If you read the first paragraph it mentions that likelihood is rough measure how likely this vulnerability is to be uncovered.
Secondly you intermix vulnerability and risk where the ultimate indicator is always risk.
I would appreciate support on this response so I can go back to the code reviewer and show him that he has misunderstood the OWASP likelihood.
answered Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
add a comment |
In my opinion, and if you read carefully, the worst-case point is only relating to the multiple threat agents, so use the worst-case. To suggest that a likelihood overall should be worst-case means that it isn’t a likelihood but rather a worst-case. They are very different things.
If you read the first paragraph it mentions that likelihood is rough measure how likely this vulnerability is to be uncovered.
Secondly you intermix vulnerability and risk where the ultimate indicator is always risk.
I would appreciate support on this response so I can go back to the code reviewer and show him that he has misunderstood the OWASP likelihood.
answered Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
add a comment |
In my opinion, and if you read carefully, the worst-case point is only relating to the multiple threat agents, so use the worst-case. To suggest that a likelihood overall should be worst-case means that it isn’t a likelihood but rather a worst-case. They are very different things.
If you read the first paragraph it mentions that likelihood is rough measure how likely this vulnerability is to be uncovered.
Secondly you intermix vulnerability and risk where the ultimate indicator is always risk.
I would appreciate support on this response so I can go back to the code reviewer and show him that he has misunderstood the OWASP likelihood.
answered Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
In my opinion, and if you read carefully, the worst-case point is only relating to the multiple threat agents, so use the worst-case. To suggest that a likelihood overall should be worst-case means that it isn’t a likelihood but rather a worst-case. They are very different things.
If you read the first paragraph it mentions that likelihood is rough measure how likely this vulnerability is to be uncovered.
Secondly you intermix vulnerability and risk where the ultimate indicator is always risk.
I would appreciate support on this response so I can go back to the code reviewer and show him that he has misunderstood the OWASP likelihood.
answered Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
answered Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
answered Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
answered Nov 26 '18 at 0:18
Rob SumsionRob Sumsion
263
263
add a comment |
add a comment |
Step 1: Identifying a Risk suggests using worst-case scenarios.
Step 2: Factors for Estimating Likelihood also suggests using worst-case scenarios.
Step 3: Factors for Estimating Impact does not mention worst-case scenarios.
So it is appropriate to use worst-case scenarios for likelihood. However, what constitutes "worst-case" can be subjective and likely debatable.
An extreme example of "worst-case" would be your attacker is state-sponsored. They have already developed a collection automated tools for discovering and exploiting threats. They have a several spies working for your company so they know the vulnerabilities. They also know how to disable or work around your intrusion detection system.
Hopefully the person applying such risk rating will use a common sense version of "worst-case".
answered Nov 26 '18 at 4:18
kill_nullkill_null
1
How can you use "Worst-case" if you are looking for the probability? You have to determine how likely an attacker can expose the vulnerability. IF you always use worst case then it is not a likelihood - it is a worst case. You can look at the worst cases and best cases and all in between to determine the likelihood. The impact can be worst-case - as that is what an attacker could do if they expose the vulnerability. Thoughts?
– Rob Sumsion
Nov 26 '18 at 5:51
I understand what you are saying. Worst-case is an outlier when determining probability of an attack. So it is not the code reviewer who is wrong as he is correctly following the OWASP documentation, but rather the OWASP doc is flawed to suggest worst-case for likelihood.
– kill_null
Nov 28 '18 at 4:45
add a comment |
Step 1: Identifying a Risk suggests using worst-case scenarios.
Step 2: Factors for Estimating Likelihood also suggests using worst-case scenarios.
Step 3: Factors for Estimating Impact does not mention worst-case scenarios.
So it is appropriate to use worst-case scenarios for likelihood. However, what constitutes "worst-case" can be subjective and likely debatable.
An extreme example of "worst-case" would be your attacker is state-sponsored. They have already developed a collection automated tools for discovering and exploiting threats. They have a several spies working for your company so they know the vulnerabilities. They also know how to disable or work around your intrusion detection system.
Hopefully the person applying such risk rating will use a common sense version of "worst-case".
answered Nov 26 '18 at 4:18
kill_nullkill_null
1
How can you use "Worst-case" if you are looking for the probability? You have to determine how likely an attacker can expose the vulnerability. IF you always use worst case then it is not a likelihood - it is a worst case. You can look at the worst cases and best cases and all in between to determine the likelihood. The impact can be worst-case - as that is what an attacker could do if they expose the vulnerability. Thoughts?
– Rob Sumsion
Nov 26 '18 at 5:51
I understand what you are saying. Worst-case is an outlier when determining probability of an attack. So it is not the code reviewer who is wrong as he is correctly following the OWASP documentation, but rather the OWASP doc is flawed to suggest worst-case for likelihood.
– kill_null
Nov 28 '18 at 4:45
add a comment |
Step 1: Identifying a Risk suggests using worst-case scenarios.
Step 2: Factors for Estimating Likelihood also suggests using worst-case scenarios.
Step 3: Factors for Estimating Impact does not mention worst-case scenarios.
So it is appropriate to use worst-case scenarios for likelihood. However, what constitutes "worst-case" can be subjective and likely debatable.
An extreme example of "worst-case" would be your attacker is state-sponsored. They have already developed a collection automated tools for discovering and exploiting threats. They have a several spies working for your company so they know the vulnerabilities. They also know how to disable or work around your intrusion detection system.
Hopefully the person applying such risk rating will use a common sense version of "worst-case".
answered Nov 26 '18 at 4:18
kill_nullkill_null
1
Step 1: Identifying a Risk suggests using worst-case scenarios.
Step 2: Factors for Estimating Likelihood also suggests using worst-case scenarios.
Step 3: Factors for Estimating Impact does not mention worst-case scenarios.
So it is appropriate to use worst-case scenarios for likelihood. However, what constitutes "worst-case" can be subjective and likely debatable.
An extreme example of "worst-case" would be your attacker is state-sponsored. They have already developed a collection automated tools for discovering and exploiting threats. They have a several spies working for your company so they know the vulnerabilities. They also know how to disable or work around your intrusion detection system.
Hopefully the person applying such risk rating will use a common sense version of "worst-case".
answered Nov 26 '18 at 4:18
kill_nullkill_null
1
answered Nov 26 '18 at 4:18
kill_nullkill_null
1
answered Nov 26 '18 at 4:18
kill_nullkill_null
1
answered Nov 26 '18 at 4:18
kill_nullkill_null
1
1
How can you use "Worst-case" if you are looking for the probability? You have to determine how likely an attacker can expose the vulnerability. IF you always use worst case then it is not a likelihood - it is a worst case. You can look at the worst cases and best cases and all in between to determine the likelihood. The impact can be worst-case - as that is what an attacker could do if they expose the vulnerability. Thoughts?
– Rob Sumsion
Nov 26 '18 at 5:51
I understand what you are saying. Worst-case is an outlier when determining probability of an attack. So it is not the code reviewer who is wrong as he is correctly following the OWASP documentation, but rather the OWASP doc is flawed to suggest worst-case for likelihood.
– kill_null
Nov 28 '18 at 4:45
add a comment |
How can you use "Worst-case" if you are looking for the probability? You have to determine how likely an attacker can expose the vulnerability. IF you always use worst case then it is not a likelihood - it is a worst case. You can look at the worst cases and best cases and all in between to determine the likelihood. The impact can be worst-case - as that is what an attacker could do if they expose the vulnerability. Thoughts?
– Rob Sumsion
Nov 26 '18 at 5:51
I understand what you are saying. Worst-case is an outlier when determining probability of an attack. So it is not the code reviewer who is wrong as he is correctly following the OWASP documentation, but rather the OWASP doc is flawed to suggest worst-case for likelihood.
– kill_null
Nov 28 '18 at 4:45
How can you use "Worst-case" if you are looking for the probability? You have to determine how likely an attacker can expose the vulnerability. IF you always use worst case then it is not a likelihood - it is a worst case. You can look at the worst cases and best cases and all in between to determine the likelihood. The impact can be worst-case - as that is what an attacker could do if they expose the vulnerability. Thoughts?
– Rob Sumsion
Nov 26 '18 at 5:51
How can you use "Worst-case" if you are looking for the probability? You have to determine how likely an attacker can expose the vulnerability. IF you always use worst case then it is not a likelihood - it is a worst case. You can look at the worst cases and best cases and all in between to determine the likelihood. The impact can be worst-case - as that is what an attacker could do if they expose the vulnerability. Thoughts?
– Rob Sumsion
Nov 26 '18 at 5:51
I understand what you are saying. Worst-case is an outlier when determining probability of an attack. So it is not the code reviewer who is wrong as he is correctly following the OWASP documentation, but rather the OWASP doc is flawed to suggest worst-case for likelihood.
– kill_null
Nov 28 '18 at 4:45
I understand what you are saying. Worst-case is an outlier when determining probability of an attack. So it is not the code reviewer who is wrong as he is correctly following the OWASP documentation, but rather the OWASP doc is flawed to suggest worst-case for likelihood.
– kill_null
Nov 28 '18 at 4:45
add a comment |
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